VUELCO | Work Packages

There are ten work packages in the VUELCO project: WP 1: Management and Coordination WP 2: Conference, Workshop and Summer School Organisation WP 3: Mathematical Modelling WP 4: Experiments WP 5: Relevance and Interpretation of Volcanic Unrest WP 6: Monitoring Capacity WP 7: Uncertainty and probabilistic assessment of the short-term evolution of volcanic unrest WP 8: Communication Protocols WP 9: Decision Making and Unrest Management WP 10: Dissemination and Exploitation Work Package 1: Management and Coordination Lead Institution: University of Bristol Task Leader: Dr Jo Gottsmann WP1 aims to facilitate effective cooperation between the partners during the whole duration of the project. Such a WP appears to be particularly critical in the structure of the project because the outcomes of some WPs need to be integrated consistently and, in some cases, used as a complement for other WPs. This requires rigorous timing in the deliveries of each WP and the adoption of common communication protocols between the partners. Contingency plans are in place to circumvent bottlenecking of information flow. The WP contains monitoring and coordinating the process-flow across the WP and over the entire project structure as well as organisation of all management meetings. As part of the management task external advisors will be invited to collaborate at certain stages of the project including workshops and consortium conferences, should their expertise provide significant benefits for the development of the project. Other cases of external advice could be also recommended on specific aspects of the project, and this will be determined according to project progress. Tasks Task 1.1 Management Meetings Task 1.2 Project Reporting Task 1.3 Monitoring of Deliverables, Attainment of Milestones and Quality Control Page Top Work Package 2: Conference, Workshop and Summer School Organisation Lead Institution: University of Bristol Task Leader: Dr Jo Gottsmann WP2: This project requires a close and permanent collaboration between all participants, as it is based on sharing data, information and experience. Perhaps, the most efficient way of dissemination of key advances within the consortium but most importantly to end users is via thematic workshops, consortium conferences and summer schools. This WP includes the organisation of all these activities over the duration of project. These interactive platforms ensure meeting one of the fundamental objectives of the project: the close interaction between different scientific and decision-making stakeholders in volcanic unrest as well as knowledge transfer to end-user communities. The locations of these activities are chosen to meet proximity to end-users in Latin America and Europe. Tasks Task 2.1 Consortium Conferences Task 2.2 Thematic Workshops Task 2.3 Summer Schools Page Top Work Package 3: Mathematical Modelling Lead Institution: INGV Task Leader: Dr Paolo Papale WP3: Sub-surface processes leading to volcanic unrest generally occur outside the realm of direct measurements. Inverse analysis and modelling is generally applied to monitoring data obtained during unrest periods to infer conditions and causative processes at depth. Relating observations with sub-surface processes in order to gain an understanding in terms of unrest dynamics and short-term volcanic hazard assessment, requires large use of physico-mathematical modelling and numerical simulations. The process of setting up and executing relevant numerical simulations represents therefore an interdisciplinary, coordinated research effort by itself. This WP combines mathematical modelling across several subdomains. Tasks Task 3.1 Petrologic Modelling Task 3.2 Modelling of Magma Dynamics Task 3.3 Tectonic Modelling (Lead: CISC) Task 3.4 Seismo-mechanical modelling (Lead: University of Leeds) Task 3.5 Integrated geodetic modelling (Lead: University of Bristol) Task 3.6 Hydrological modelling (Lead: University of Bristol) Task 3.7 Geochemical Modelling Page Top Work Package 4: Experiments Lead Institution: LMU Task Leader: Prof Don Dingwell WP4: The phenomena to be investigated are a group of the most pressing issues associated with dealing with volcanic unrest. Briefly, the state-of-the-art of experimental volcanology is now capable of accessing the P-T-X-t conditions of magma storage, mixing, ascent, degassing, and the fragmentation and/or collapse of highly vesicular magma. The aspects that will be experimentally determined here are: Magma storage state - magma mixing - magma degassing - open and closed system permeability loss - fluid mineralisation - phreatic explosions - tectonic triggering. Tasks Task 4.1 Magma properties and kinetics (Lead: ISTO) Task 4.2 Magma mixing in the laboratory (Lead: LMU) Task 4.3 Permeability loss in volcanic plugs (Lead: LMU) Task 4.4 Physics of phreatic explosions (Lead: LMU) Task 4.5 Fluid mineralisation of rock (Lead: University of Bristol) Task 4.6 Volcano tectonics (Lead: CISC) Page Top Work Package 5: Relevance and Interpretation of Volcanic Unrest Lead Institution: UNAM Task Leader: Dr Servando de la Cruz WP5: Our knowledge on the relevance (e.g., frequency, nature, outcome) of unrest periods is incomplete from a global perspective. The link between observed signals and outcome of unrest is also poorly investigated as is the identification of reliable precursory signals to eruptive activity. This WP focuses on establishing the relevance of unrest via database construction and exploitation, statistical evaluation and hindsight evaluation and interpretation of unrest signals of past and current events in Latin America and Europe. Emphasis is also placed on the definition of concepts that are fundamental for the volcanic crisis management, such as unrest, precursor, and forecast. Tasks Task 5.1 Database management and data distribution Task 5.2 Relationship Analysis Task 5.3 Best Practice Definitions Task 5.4 Signal Interpretation Page Top Work Package 6: Monitoring Capacity Lead Institution: University of Leeds Task Leader: Prof Jurgen Neuberg WP6: Observables form the link between the the mathematical modelling component of this project and the actual volcanic process to be modelled. Hence, building monitoring capacity on volcanoes feeds into the advanced understanding of these processes by linking different model strands, and providing the parameter space, boundary and initial condition by which the models are constrained. Furthermore, building monitoring capacity aims at a selection of volcanic datasets that can be used in a fast and direct way to feed in a decision making process. Hence, besides providing the modelling parameters which might be of a general scientific interest, routinely monitored datasets must be employed to be interpreted in terms of volcanic processes, key parameters must be extracted and fed into the framework of probabilistic forecasting. Finally, practical aspects need to be taken into account; different volcanic settings will require different instrumental set-ups and a hierarchy amongst different monitoring strands needs to be established. Financial restrictions, local procedures and cultural circumstances will also have a controlling factor. Tasks Task 6.1 Case Studies Task 6.2 Design of new monitoring and data processing strategies Page Top Work Package 7: Uncertainty and probabilistic assessment of the short-term evolution of volcanic unrest Lead Institution: INGV Task Leader: Dr Paolo Papale WP7: Volcanic systems are inherently complex, implying that processes occurring in a volcanic system are characterised by a large number of degrees of freedom translating into a high degree of uncertainty. This WP identifies and quantifies the different kind of uncertainties in the volcanic processes that characterise episodes of unrest with an aim to implement innovative probabilistic models to track in real-time the short-term evolution of volcanic unrest. The work will provide a best practice approach for short-term eruption forecast during unrest events. Tasks Task 7.1 Identification, analysis and quantification of uncertainties Task 7.2 Implementation of innovative probabilistic models to track the short term evolution of volcanic unrest Task 7.3 Best practice guidelines and consensus building Page Top Work Package 8: Communication Protocols Lead Institution:CISC Task Leader: Prof Joan Martí WP8: This WP will establish good practice communication protocols between stakeholders in unrest periods focusing particularly on the role of scientists. Problems and difficulties will be highlighted and analysed to identify common flaws affecting the effective and efficient transfer of scientific information. This WP explores the needs and constraints of different stakeholders for best-practice information flow and communication. Particular protocols will be designed for each level of communication. A virtual agora, envisaged as a virtual channel for communication, information exchange, dissemination of scientific and technical innovations, and storage and use of e-tools, will be created to facilitate access to them by all participants in the project and by any scientist or professional involved in volcanic unrest after completion of the project. Tasks Task 8.1 Review of Communication Protocols Task 8.2 Protocol Design Task 8.3 Determination of local leaders for communication strategies (Lead: University of Bristol) Page Top Work Package 9: Decision Making and Unrest Management Lead Institution: DPC Task Leader: Dr Stefano Ciolli WP9: When a volcano develops from dormancy through a phase of unrest, civil authorities in charge of managing volcanic emergencies, have to make decisions for example regarding the evacuation of people living around the volcano. Decision-making is subject to constraints such as availability of data, uncertainty or compliance. This WP identifies knowledge holders and decision-makers and their needs in the target areas during unrest crises, and the incorporation of forecasting and cost-benefit tools. The work will also identify networks of social trust within the at-risk communities and determine the practices of securitization and will involve simulations of unrest crises. Tasks Task 9.1 Identification of knowledge holders (Lead: University of Bristol) Task 9.2 Identification of decision makers and their needs (Lead: DPC) Task 9.3 Decription of past histories and social unrest in the volcanic regions (Lead: University of Bristol) Task 9.4 Determination of the practices of securitization (Lead: University of Bristol) Task 9.5 Cost benefit analysis and the link between scientists and decision makers (Lead: INGV) Task 9.6 Simulations of unrest and decision making (Lead: DPC) Page Top Work Package 10: Dissemination and Exploitation Lead Institution: University of Bristol Task Leader: Dr Jo Gottsmann WP10: This work packages coordinates means and tools for the dissemination of the findings and content of the project and includes drafting of the interim and final scientific reports of the project, including executive summaries. Tasks Task 10.1 Production and Distribution of Dissemination Documents and Coordination of Public Activities Task 10.2 Project Website Task 10.3 Virtual Agora (Lead: CSIC)

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